Concept and method of application
The basic idea of the application is to choose events that are far behind in the history of football teams, and start to follow them until that event occurs or until we reach the established limit for follow-up.
For this we have ample records of matches, we count all the parties that dispute the teams whether they are official or friendly (a follow-up can also be accomplished in a friendly match).
Once registered the updated records of the matches, the database gives us the percentages that the teams obtain in each market, the current streaks without occurring the events and the historical historical streaks that those teams have registered in our data base.
The method is based on statistical data, the teams in their histories have statistical numbers of all the markets that we have available, as we will see in the following example. Arsenal FC has a 31.75% chance of tying its second legs. Currently has a delay of 17 consecutive matches without that result, and the record tells us that his maximum recorded streak is 14 consecutive games. This can serve as a guide for follow-up.
First we will break down the tracking:
||Second time - Draw
- Team: selected team name.
- Country: nationality of team.
- Market: event to follow up.
- R: current streak, without the event happening in the history of that team.
- RMax: recorded at our base without that event happening on the part of that team.
- PH: is the historical percentage that we have registered in your history, in our database, the number of times this team has achieved this market in their matches, for this we count official and friendly matches.
- PA: is the current probability that the database shows us that, in the next matches, the follow-up that we are performing is met, it is a reference value.
Once chosen the follow-up we will know the "approximate" fee that the bookmaker will pay us, so the next step is to establish an amount of money that we should not exceed.
For example, for this monitoring we will allocate an amount of 300€. Once the limit is established, we begin the monitoring and we must go up the amount bet in each attempt, with the purpose of guaranteeing us gains once accomplished.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal FC, we will bet on the result of a tie in the 2nd part, the bookmaker pays us a odd of 2.50 for this result. We will invest 1€, the result in the second part is 4-0.
Bet: € 1 / Odd: 2,50 / Earnings: -.
Sutton utd vs Arsenal FC, We will bet on the result of tie in the 2nd part, the bookmaker pays us a odd of 3.10 for this result. We will invest 2€, the result in the second part is 0-1.
Bet: € 2 / Odd: 3,10 / Earnings: -.
Liverpool vs Arsenal FC, We will bet on the result of a tie in the 2nd part, the bookmaker pays us a odd of 2.50 for this result. We will invest 4€, the result in the second part is 1-1. Accomplished follow-up.
Bet: € 4 / Odd: 2,50 / Earnings: € 10.
The outcome of follow-up would be as follows:
Money invested: 7€. Net profit discounting the money invested: 3€.
This method is the one we advise to use in the follow-ups, and each user will have the money he / she thinks it is appropriate to invest.
Very important: once the limit established for the follow-up is reached, without it being fulfilled, this follow-up is lost, luckily very little happens, but it can happen.
Soon we will implement a calculation tool on the web, so that each user can keep track of the follow-ups.
Types of follow-up
- Simple follow-up: These follow-ups are the safest, since they are the ones that are played without skipping any game, you never know what match can be followed.
- Alternate follow-up: This type of follow-up has the characteristic that you can miss an attempt, because you distrusted the result and resume the follow-up to the next match. With this type of monitoring some user would not bet on the tie in the 2nd part of Arsenal FC against Sutton.
Doubts and Tips
In any circumstance, you can contact us in the mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, There we will answer you personally on the subject to deal with.